Writing and photographs by Dean Andrews
The 2023/24 Cygnett WNBL season is set for a thrilling conclusion with none of the ladder positions in the top four locked in as the league enters the final weekend of the regular season. Two teams have qualified for a top two position, last years Grand Finalists Southside Flyers and Townsville Fire, the Round 15 results will determine which of these two clubs wins the minor premiership. Four teams, Bendigo Spirit, Sydney Flames, Melbourne Boomers and Perth Lynx are in contention for the two remaining finals spots. Bendigo, Sydney and Melbourne are all on 11 wins and nine losses, one win ahead of Perth who are on 10 wins, 10 losses and have a Round 15 road game against fellow finals contender Bendigo.
Adelaide Lightning and UC Capitals will both miss the WNBL finals for the second consecutive season. Adelaide have defeated Southside once this season and UC Capitals had a victory against Melbourne in one game and lost in overtime in the other so both of the lower ranked teams will be confident that they can finish the season on a high with a victory against this weekend’s opponent.
From 2016/17 onwards eight teams have competed in the WNBL and the top four teams at the end of the regular season have contested the finals. Over seven seasons from 2016/17 to 2022/23 the smallest gap between first and fifth at the end of the regular season was four wins in 2016/17, the largest gap from first to fifth was seven wins in 2018/19.
The 2023/24 Cygnett WNBL season is the league’s most unpredictable season for over a decade and possibly ever. On the final weekend of the 2023/24 season all eight teams will play one game each. The gap from first to fifth is currently two games which is far closer than a typical season. The maximum gap from first to fifth at the end of the 2023/24 season is three games which is the closest gap in the eight seasons with eight teams and a top four from 2016/17.
When the 2023/24 WNBL regular season commenced on 1 November 2023 only 35 of the 82 players on a main roster of a WNBL team were suiting up for the same team they played for in 2022/23. With such a high degree of player movement in the off-season 2023/24 shaped as being harder to predict than recent WNBL seasons as teams built chemistry. Most teams have had one or more core rotation players on the sidelines injured for an extended period of time at some point during the season which has made it difficult for teams to build continuity and contributed to some unexpected results. None of the head to head series between the teams that are third to sixth on the ladder, Bendigo, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth were clean sweeps. Each of these series will end in a 2-1 scorelines which highlights how competitive the league has been.
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On the eve of the 2023/24 season commencing Milestones and Misses published a Comprehensive guide to player movement and main rosters for the 2023/24 Cygnett WNBL season. The comprehensive guide provides details on the player movement and main rosters from a league wide perspective and then looks at these two aspects for each of the eight WNBL clubs. The club section includes player profiles on every player on a main roster as at 30 October 2023. A profile on each club’s Head Coach is also included. A link is below:
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Details are provided below on:
- How the WNBL ladder is determined.
- What is at stake in each of the four games on the weekend.
- What needs to happen for each team to finish on top of the ladder or make the finals.
- Final ladder positions and semi finalists for the different combinations of results from the 4 remaining games.
Is it a case of win and you are in the finals for any of the contenders?
Yes, Bendigo Spirit and Sydney Flames will both make the finals if they win their games against Perth Lynx and Townsville Fire respectively. For Sydney Flames it is a clear-cut outcome, win against Townsville and they play finals, lose and they finish outside the top four. Given that Sydney play in the final game of the round we wont know the composition of the top four until the end of that game and with it the conclusion to an enthralling 2023/24 Cygnett WNBL regular season.
How are ladder positions determined in the WNBL?
Page 21 of the Cygnett WNBL 2023/2024 Media Guide stated “The positions on the ladder during the regular season shall be determined by win/loss percentage. Should two or more teams be tied with the same win/loss percentage during the regular season they shall be ranked by Head to Head results between the tied teams.”1
Details are provided in the Media Guide in relation on how tied teams are ranked based on Head to Head results. An article published by the WNBL earlier this week on 20 February provided more detail regarding tied teams and said:
“Two-Way Tie – if a tie exists between two teams at the completion of the season, the winner of the three-game series between those two teams is given priority ranking.
Multiple Team Tie – if a tie exists between three or more teams, the results of all games played between the tied teams are used to determine the head-to-head split. If the head-to-head results between the multiple teams are still tied, then points differential is used to determine the split. (ie if all teams have a 3-3 head-to-head record)
The total points scored and allowed for each game is calculated for the teams involved in the tie. The team with the highest points for and against value will be given priority ranking. The team with the second highest points for and against value will be given the secondary ranking.
Example: Game One: A 50 – B 45 Game Two: B 60 – C 38 Game Three: C 45 – A 37 Team A: Game One (+5), Game Three (-8) = -3 Points
Two-Way Tie Persists – if a tie exists between two teams after using the multiple team tie, the winner of the series played by the two teams involved (head-to-head match-up) will be given priority ranking.”2
Whatever combination of results we have from the four remaining Round 15 games there will be at least one tie with at least two teams. There are two combination of outcomes (Outcome H1 and Outcome H2) that would have Southside and Townsville tied on 14 wins and four teams, Bendigo, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth tied on 11 wins.
WNBL Ladder as at 23 February
Position Team GP W L %WON
1 Southside Flyers 20 13 7 65
2 Townsville Fire 20 13 7 65
3 Bendigo Spirit 20 11 9 55
4 Sydney Flames 20 11 9 55
5 Melbourne Boomers 20 11 9 55
6 Perth Lynx 20 10 10 50
7 Adelaide Lightning 20 7 13 35
8 UC Capitals 20 4 16 20
Round 15 Fixture in chronological order
- UC Capitals vs Melbourne Boomers
Saturday 24 February 2.30pm, National Convention Centre
9Now
If Melbourne win they will make the finals if Sydney and/or Bendigo lose. It is still possible for Melbourne to make the finals if they lose to the UC Capitals and other results go their way. The one certainty when Melbourne walk off the court after their road game against the UC Capitals on Saturday afternoon is that the Boomers wont know if they have made finals or not, they will have to wait on other results.
- Southside Flyers vs Adelaide Lightning
Saturday 24 February 5.00pm, Melbourne Sports Centres Parkville
9Now
Due to redevelopment works at the State Basketball Centre the Southside Flyers usual home court, the show court is not available and Southside will host Adelaide at Melbourne Sports Centres Parkville on Saturday evening. The Flyers have split their two road games at the venue against Melbourne this season for one win and one loss. A Southside victory against Adelaide would ensure that they win the minor premiership. Southside can still finish top if they lose to Adelaide and Townsville lose to Sydney. Adelaide have won all three games since Steph Talbot returned from a knee injury and will be looking to extend their winning streak to four games. Southside have also won three consecutive games.
- Bendigo Spirit vs Perth Lynx
Saturday 24 February 7.30pm, Red Energy Arena
9Now
Bendigo will lock in a finals berth for the first time since 2014/15 if they defeat Perth. To make the finals Perth need to win and have another result go their way – Sydney lose to Townsville. Bendigo’s Round 15 home game against Perth is the closest the WNBL will get to a play in game for the 2023/24 season. It is very likely that the victor in this game makes the finals and the team that loses misses out. The only exception is that Bendigo can make finals if they have a narrow loss and two other results go their way (Outcome G1).
- Townsville Fire vs Sydney Flames
Sunday 25 February, 3.00pm, Townsville Entertainment Centre
9Now
The equation for the Sydney Flames is simple, defeat Townsville and they will make the finals for the first time since 2017/18 when they made the semi finals. If Sydney lose they wont make the finals and another team will be elated and getting a reprieve and gaining a finals berth. Townsville can secure top spot with a victory against Sydney if Southside lose to Adelaide.
What is required for teams to finish on top of the ladder / make finals?
1. Southside Flyers, 13 wins, 7 losses
Remaining Round 15 game
Southside (H) vs Adelaide on Saturday 24 February at Melbourne Sports Centres Parkville
The Southside season series result against the one team they might tie with is:
Southside won series against Townsville 2-1.
Southside had a 77-70 road victory against Townsville on Wednesday night and are now in the box seat to win the minor premiership.
If Southside have a home victory against Adelaide they will finish on top of the ladder.
A Townsville victory against Sydney and a Southside loss to Adelaide would result in Townsville finishing first and Southside second.
Since rebranding from the Dandenong Rangers to the Southside Flyers in July 2019 Southside have now finished in the top two on the ladder in four of their five seasons, on the previous three occasions the Flyers made the Grand Final.
The Southside Flyers team post-game after the victory against Perth Lynx at the State Basketball Centre on 31 January 2024
Southside have got an extremely experienced team with four players having played more than 190 games each – Carley Ernst, Bec Cole, Lauren Jackson, Leilani Mitchell. Due to suffering a season-ending Achilles injury on 4 February 2023 in the Southside flyers home game at John Cain Arena Jackson didn’t play basketball in the WNBL off-season. Leilani Mitchell had a daughter Elle in 2022 and on 22 February 2023 returned to the WNBL, playing for Melbourne Boomers against Southside Flyers. Jackson and Mitchell have both increased their output and have taken on more responsibility for the Flyers as the 2023/24 season has progressed. Jackson and Mitchell are both in the select group of players that have won multiple Rachael Sporn medals and their experience will be invaluable during the remainder of the season.
Lauren Jackson shooting a jump shot for the Southside Flyers against UC Capitals at the State Basketball Centre on 6 January 2024
In Southside’s last three games American import centre Mercedes Russell has averaged 21 points per game at an accuracy of 69.2% from the field and 10.3 rebounds per game. In her first WNBL season with Southside in 2019/20 Russell was selected in the All-WNBL second team. In 2023/24 Russell leads the league with a field goal accuracy of 57.1% and ranks seventh in the league for both points (15.4 per game) and rebounds (8.9) to mount a strong case for All-WNBL selection in her second season in the league.
Mercedes Russell shooting a jump shot for the Southside Flyers against Perth Lynx at the State Basketball Centre on 31 January 2024
2. Townsville Fire, 13 wins, 7 losses
Remaining Round 15 game
Townsville (H) vs Sydney on Sunday 25 February, Townsville Entertainment Centre
The Townsville season series result against the one team they might tie with is:
Townsville lost series against Southside 1-2.
Townsville are likely to finish 2nd on the ladder after their home loss to Southside last night. Townsville will finish second on the ladder if Southside have a home victory against Adelaide.
A Townsville victory against Sydney and a Southside loss to Adelaide would result in Townsville finishing first and Southside second.
In 2022/23 Townsville dominated at the end of the season to win 12 consecutive games to finish the regular season. Townsville maintained their form in the finals to win all four games, extending their winning streak to 16 games and won the WNBL Championship in convincing fashion.
For most of the 2023/24 season Townsville looked to be the stand out team again. After a 12 point road victory against Melbourne Boomers on 10 January Townsville had a record of 12 wins and three losses. Since then Townsville have lost four of their five games with the first three of these losses being by at least 15 points.
Townsville Fire players getting into a team huddle after defeating Bendigo Spirit at Geelong Arena on 7 January 2024
In the Round 14 home game against Bendigo forward Alice Kunek made her return from a broken wrist and has played off the bench in Townsville’s last two games. Power forward/centre Amanda Zahui B has been on the sidelines since suffering a calf injury in the road game against Melbourne Boomers on 13 January. Zahui B is a possible return for Townsville in their home game against Sydney on Sunday afternoon.
Kunek’s injury provided an opportunity for Courtney Woods to be elevated into the Fire’s starting lineup. Woods has thrived in this role to be Townsville’s second leading scorer with 13.5 points per game at 51.4% from the field and has been nominated for the WNBL’s Betty Watson Breakout Player of the Year Award.
Courtney Woods shooting a three-pointer for Townsville Fire against the Melbourne Boomers on 10 January 2024 at Melbourne Sports Centres, Parkville
Townsville Fire captain Sami Whitcomb has reached several milestones in 2023/24 including making the 400th three-pointer of her WNBL career and reached 2,500 career points, achieving the latter milestone in Townsville’s home game against Southside on Saturday. In 2023/24 Whitcomb is averaging 15.3 points (ranked 8th in the WNBL), 4.5 rebounds, 4.6 assists (8th), 2.7 steals (2nd) and 35.2 minutes (3rd) per game. Whitcomb is one of the five nominees for the WNBL’s Suzy Batkovic Medal which is awarded to the league’s Most Valuable Player.
Sami Whitcomb shooting a three-pointer for Townsville Fire against Bendigo Spirit at Geelong Arena on 7 January 2024
After Townsville’s loss at home to Southside on Wednesday night Fire Head Coach Shannon Seebohm commented “We lifted our intensity, you know we had some break downs still and some errors and things like you always do but I think if we learn from some of those things, which are very controllable, and combine it with that effort moving forward, we’ll be in great shape. I think a really good step back in the right direction.”3
3. Bendigo Spirit, 11 wins, 9 losses
The feature image is of Bendigo players celebrating after defeating Melbourne Boomers at Melbourne Sports Centres, Parkville on 30 December 2023
Round 15 game
Bendigo vs Perth (H) on Saturday 24 February at Red Energy Arena
The Bendigo season series results against the three teams they might tie with are:
Bendigo won series against Melbourne 2-1
Bendigo lost series against Sydney 1-2
Bendigo’s series against Perth is 1-1. If Bendigo lose in Round 15 to Perth they will lose their season series 1-2 and both teams will finish on 11 wins.
If Bendigo have a home victory against Perth they will make the finals.
If Bendigo loss to Perth they are likely to miss the finals. The only scenario that Bendigo can make finals is if they lose by five points or less to Perth (Outcome G1), UC Capitals defeat Melbourne Boomers and Townsville Fire lose to Sydney Flames. Bendigo would be one of three teams along with Melbourne and Perth tied on 11 wins for fourth to sixth. In games between these three teams each team had three wins and three losses so they would still be tied. Higher game points difference of the games between them would be used to split the tie. Before Bendigo’s game against Perth the points difference standings are:
Team Wins Losses Head to Head
Bendigo Spirit 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD +22*
Melbourne Boomers 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD +17
Perth Lynx 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD -39*
*Without including the margin of Perth’s victory against Bendigo.
A loss by Bendigo of six points or more to Perth their points difference would drop below Melbourne resulting in Melbourne finishing fourth and Bendigo fifth.
Bendigo Spirit entered their Round 4 home game at Red Energy Arena on Saturday night 25 November against Sydney Flames on a 10 game losing streak, having lost their last six games of 2022/23 and their first four games of 2023/24. Raising the degree of difficulty against the Flames, Bendigo were without captain Kelsey Griffin who had scored a game-high 33 points in her first game of the season against Melbourne in Round 3. Sydney led Bendigo by 15 points, 37-22 with four minutes and 54 seconds remaining in the second quarter. Bendigo were able to reduce the lead to nine points at half-time and then had a dominant second half to outscore Sydney 45 points to 20 and won by 16 points.
Bendigo Spirit players celebrating after defeating Sydney Flames on 25 November 2023 at Red Energy Arena
From that point on Bendigo have been improving their win and loss ledger and against the odds are in the top four with one round remaining. Bendigo have won their last five games to have the longest current winning streak in the league. Three wins during this time have been by at least 10 points against teams in the top 6, Perth (21 points), Melbourne (10) and most recently a 33 point road victory recently reigning champions Townsville Fire.
Since losing their first four games of the 2023/24 season Bendigo have a record of 11 wins and five losses with three of the losses being to Southside Flyers. The road victory by Southside against Townsville on Wednesday night enabled Bendigo to have their finals destiny in their own hands. Defeat Perth and they are in the finals for the first time since 2014/15 when they lost in the Grand Final to Townsville.
Kelly Wilson playing for Bendigo Spirit against Melbourne Boomers on 30 December 2023 at Melbourne Sports Centres Parkville
Two players from Bendigo’s 2014/15 team are part of the current starting five, point guard Kelly Wilson and forward Kelsey Griffin. Wilson has achieved several milestones in 2023/24 including reaching 1,500 career assists, moving up to second on the WNBL’s All-Time assists list and becoming the first player in WNBL history to reach 450 games. Griffin is in exceptional form, having won the WNBL’s Player of the Week in the past two rounds, Round 13 & 14. In 2023/24 Griffin is averaging 15.4 points (ranked 8th in the WNBL) and 7.4 rebounds (10th) per game to play an integral role in Bendigo moving up the ladder into third position.
To celebrate Kelly Wilson reaching 450 WNBL games Milestones and Misses published an article on 15 February comprehensively covering Wilson’s incredible career. A link to the Kelly Wilson article is below:
4. Sydney Flames, 11 wins, 9 losses
Round 15 game
Sydney (A) vs Townsville on Sunday 25 February, Townsville Entertainment Centre
The Sydney season series results against the three teams they might tie with are:
Sydney won series against Bendigo 2-1.
Sydney lost series 1-2 to Melbourne.
Sydney lost series 1-2 to Perth.
For Sydney Flames it is a matter of win against Townsville and they play finals for the first time since 2017/18, six seasons ago. Lose and Sydney finish outside the top four.
Sydney will finish third if they win and Bendigo and Melbourne both lose. Any other combination of results with a Sydney victory will have them finishing fourth.
A Sydney loss to Townsville would result in a fifth place finish.
In the off-season the Sydney Flames signed four players to multi-year deals – Lauren Nicholson, Cayla George, Tess Madgen and Shaneice Swain. 2021/22 Melbourne Boomers Championship winning coach and current New Zealand Tall Ferns Head Coach Guy Molloy was appointed the Head Coach of the Sydney Flames. With a new look team and only three Flames players – Kiera Rowe, Emma Clarke and Vanessa Panousis returning from the 2022/23 roster it was going to take time for the Sydney to build chemistry in 2023/24. Injuries made the task more difficult with Swain sidelined due to a foot injury and Madgen only playing three games in the first two months of the season. Madgen has scored at least 13 points in three of her past four games and Swain has played Sydney’s last two games.
Tess Madgen playing for Sydney Flames against Southside Flyers at the State Basketball Centre on 12 January 2024
Guard Lauren Nicholson has maintained a high standard throughout the 2023/24 season to average 15.7 points (ranked 4th in the WNBL), 3.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists (11th), 1.1 steals (equal 19th) and 35.6 minutes (2nd) per game. Defense and scoring ability have been long been strengths of Nicholson’s. During 2023/24 Nicholson was able to make a greater contribution facilitating her teammates and has set a new career-high for assists per game. In six of her last nine games Nicholson has had at least 5 assists including one game with 10 assists and two games with eight assists. Nicholson has been nominated for the WNBL’s Suzy Batkovic Medal which is awarded to the league’s MVP and has also been nominated for the fan’s MVP Award.
Lauren Nicholson shooting a jump shot for Sydney Flames against Southside Flyers at the State Basketball Centre on 12 January 2024
After captaining Townsville Fire to the 2022/23 WNBL Championship Nicholson is now a member of the Sydney Flames team that needs to win their final game of the season against Townsville to make the 2023/24 finals. On Sydney’s prospects and the game against Townsville Nicholson told the Sydney Flames “We need to stick to our game plan and trust the process. I believe if we execute, especially in the second half, we will come out on top. We are playing pretty good basketball right now so if we play that way we will win. It would mean a lot for the club to get to the finals after a long time out of them. I feel like Guy [Molloy] and the Flames management have put together a roster that can compete for a championship. I know that’s what we are all trying to achieve and I truly believe we can get there.”4
Sydney Flames team huddle after their victory against Melbourne Boomers on 20 December 2023 at Melbourne Sports Centres Parkville
5. Melbourne Boomers, 11 wins, 9 losses
Round 15 game
Melbourne (A) vs UC Capitals on Saturday 24 February, National Convention Centre
The Melbourne season series results against the three teams they might tie with are:
Melbourne won series against Perth 2-1.
Melbourne won series against Sydney 2-1.
Melbourne lost series 1-2 to Bendigo.
For the Melbourne Boomers it has been a case of anything can happen in 2023/24, they have defeated each of the seven other WNBL teams at least once, on the flipside they have also lost to each of the seven other WNBL teams at least once. Melbourne have got all bases covered in terms of outcomes from their Round 15 game against the UC Capitals, being it is possible to A) Win and make finals, B) Win and don’t make finals, C) Lose and don’t make finals, D) Lose and make finals. Regardless of the result against the Caps Melbourne will have to wait for other results before they know if they have made the finals.
Melbourne will make the finals if they win and one or both of the following results happen:
– Bendigo Spirit lose to Perth Lynx.
– Townsville Fire defeat Sydney Flames.
If Melbourne lose they can still make finals if
– Bendigo win and Sydney lose.
-Bendigo and Sydney both lose. In this scenario, Melbourne, Sydney, Bendigo and Perth would all be tied on 11 wins for third to sixth. Melbourne would finish third based on the tie-breaker, refer to Outcome H later in this article
– Perth defeat Bendigo by more than five points and Sydney defeat Townsville. Refer To outcome G later in this article.
For player continuity the Melbourne Boomers ranked last with only two players – 2022/23 All-WNBL First team member Kristy Wallace and New Zealand Tall Ferns representative Penina Davidson returning from the 2022/23 main roster. Due to a knee injury Wallace missed most of the regular season and only played her first game in Round 14. Davidson has been on the sidelines since suffering a calf injury in the third quarter of Melbourne’s home game against Townsville Fire on 13 January.
Melbourne Boomers team after their victory against Southside Flyers on 3 January 2024 at Melbourne Sports Centres Parkville
Despite the higher player turnover the Melbourne Boomers got out of the blocks brilliantly in 2023/24 and for the first time since 2009/10 when they were known as Bulleen the Boomers won their first five games of the season. Point guard Jordin Canada suffered a concussion in a road game against the UC Capitals on Friday 15 December. The Boomers lost the three games Canada missed due to concussion as well as the game she suffered the injury in, bringing Melbourne back to the pack.
Six Melbourne Boomers are averaging more than 7.5 points per game in 2023/24, Canada, Naz Hillmon, Keely Froling, Sara Blicavs, Tera Reed and Monique Conti. Canada is averaging 14.8 points ranked 10th in the WNBL), 4.9 rebounds, 7.8 assists (1st), 2.9 steals (1st) and 34.3 minutes (4th) per game and is nominated for the WNBL’s MVP and Fan MVP Award.
Jordin Canada playing for Melbourne Boomers against Perth Lynx on 24 January 2024 at Melbourne Sports Centres Parkville
6. Perth Lynx, 10 wins, 10 losses
Round 15 game
Perth (A) vs Bendigo on Saturday 24 February at Red Energy Arena
The Perth season series results against the three teams they might tie with are:
Perth won series against Sydney 2-1.
Perth lost series to Melbourne 1-2.
Perth’s series against Bendigo is 1-1. If Perth defeat Bendigo in Round 15 they will win their season series 2-1 and both teams will finish on 11 wins.
Perth Lynx will make the finals if they defeat Bendigo Spirit and Townsville Fire defeat Sydney Flames.
Perth will miss the finals if they defeat Bendigo and Townsville lose to Sydney. If Perth lose to Bendigo they will finish sixth on the ladder.
Guard/forward Amy Atwell was the only one of six Perth players that averaged more than 20 minutes per game in 2022/23 that suited up for the club again in 2023/24. Joining Atwell in returning to Perth were forward Mackenzie Clinch Hoycard and guard Chloe Forster with the latter elevated from being a Lynx development player in 2022/23 to being on the main roster in 2023/24.
Perth signed American import point guard Aari McDonald in the off-season. Perth Head Coach Petrik commented in the pre-season “Now this season, I’ve never had a small, jet-quick point guard like I have with Aari, but she was the best player available, so it’s all about how I can make that work. Anyone who is a Perth Lynx fan will watch us play and think it’s roughly the style they remember. On one hand, we’ve obviously built a team based on her speed, so we tried to get as many matching pieces for that as we could, but the overall style and philosophy is pretty well set.”5
Aari McDonald playing for Perth Lynx against Southside Flyers at the State Basketball Centre on 22 November 2023
McDonald has played phenomenal basketball for Perth and was pivotal to the Lynx winning eight of their first 11 games. McDonald suffered a knee injury in a home game against the UC Capitals on 27 December. With McDonald on the sidelines Perth had a record of one win, seven losses and fell down the ladder. In her return off the bench on 18 February in Perth’s home victory against the UC Capitals McDonald scored a game-high 24 points in 21 minutes and 34 seconds court time. McDonald is averaging a league-leading 19.3 points and 5.7 assists (3rd) per game.
After Perth’s game against the UC Capitals McDonald commented “We were thinking about me playing around 20 or 25 minutes so I’m happy with that. It was fun. I had the butterflies like I hadn’t played in a while so it felt good to be back. It just felt good to get a win finally too more than anything. Surprisingly I did feel good with the knee out there. I was a bit nervous before the game I’m not going to lie, but I just had to trust the process, trust the rehab I did and trust what the medical staff had gave me. So when I got out there I just didn’t think about it at all.”6
Five Perth Lynx players are averaging more than 10.0 points per game with McDonald joined in this category by Amy Atwell, Anneli Maley, Emily Potter and Miela Goodchild. Atwell ranks second in the league with 17.7 points per game and Maley ranks second with 12.8 rebounds per game.
Amy Atwell playing for Perth Lynx against Southside Flyers at the State Basketball Centre on 31 January 2024
Perth have been very difficult to beat with McDonald in the line-up and Bendigo are on a league-high five game winning streak. Perth’s road game against Bendigo on Saturday night is set to be a high quality contest in a must win game for the Lynx.
Round 15 outcomes
Details are provided below for the outcomes, both ladder for the top 6 and semi finalists for the different combinations of results from the four remaining Round 15 games. Southside and Townsville will finish in the top two however the order can change. Bendigo, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth will finish from third to sixth however there are many different combinations for the finishing order of these four teams.
There are 16 different outcomes from a win/loss perspective in terms of the combination of results from the four remaining Round 15 games. If Perth defeat Bendigo there is one combination of results (Outcome G) where the margin in this game has an impact on the final ladder order.
All of the below is based on my interpretation of the WNBL ladder rules. The outcomes are less complex when there is a two-way tie between teams and become more complex when there is a three or four-way tie. Below is a spreadsheet showing the possible ladder outcomes for third to sixth on the ladder based on the different combinations of results in the games this weekend.
As per the WNBL website the finals schedule is:
The WNBL will release the finals schedule with the semi final match-ups after the final ladder positions are determined.
The article titled The race to WNBL Finals published on the WNBL website on 20 February stated:
“The finals format will be 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 semi-final series, with the winner of each series to participate in the Grand Final. Semi Final and Grand Final Series will be played as a best of three (3) games, with the higher ranked team hosting games 1 and 3 (if required).”7
With so little separating the top six teams on the WNBL ladder the battle for the WNBL Championship in 2023/24 will be more open than it is in most seasons, setting up a fascinating finals series regardless of which teams join Southside and Townsville in the top four.
Outcome A: Bendigo, Sydney & Melbourne tied on 12 wins for 3rd to 5th
Round 15 results
UC Capitals lose to Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit defeat Perth Lynx
Southside defeat Adelaide
Townsville Fire lose to Sydney Flames
With these results Bendigo, Sydney and Melbourne would be in a three way tie for third to fifth on 12 wins. In the head to head games between these three teams each team had three wins and three losses which doesn’t break the tie. The next step is points difference in the games between these three teams which results in Bendigo being third with a points difference of +9, Sydney fourth with a PD of +8 and Melbourne fifth with a PD of -17.
Ladder
Team Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Southside Flyers 14 7
2 Townsville Fire 13 8
3 Bendigo Spirit 12 9 3 wins, 3 losses, PD +9
4 Sydney Flames 12 9 3 wins, 3 losses, PD +8
5 Melbourne Boomers 12 9 3 wins, 3 losses, PD -17
6 Perth Lynx 10 11
Semi finals:
Southside Flyers (1st) vs Sydney Flames (4th)
Townsville Fire (2nd) vs Bendigo Spirit (3rd)
If Southside lose to Adelaide they would be tied with Townsville on 13 wins and eight losses. Southside would finish on top due to winning the series against Townsville 2-1.
Outcome B: Sydney & Bendigo tied on 12 wins for 3rd to 4th
Round 15 results
UC Capitals defeat Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit defeat Perth Lynx
Southside defeat Adelaide
Townsville Fire lose to Sydney Flames
Ladder
Team Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Southside Flyers 14 7
2 Townsville Fire 13 8
3 Sydney Flames 12 9 2 wins, 1 loss
4 Bendigo Spirit 12 9 1 win, 2 losses
5 Melbourne Boomers 11 10
6 Perth Lynx 10 11
Semi finals:
Southside Flyers (1st) vs Bendigo Spirit (4th)
Townsville Fire (2nd) vs Sydney Flames (3rd)
If Southside lose to Adelaide Southside would have 13 wins and eight losses, the same record as Townsville Fire. Southside would finish on top due to winning the series against Townsville 2-1.
Outcome C: Melbourne & Sydney tied on 12 wins for 3rd to 4th
Round 15 results
UC Capitals lose to Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit lose to Perth Lynx
Southside defeat Adelaide
Townsville Fire lose to Sydney Flames
Ladder
Team Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Southside Flyers 14 7
2 Townsville Fire 13 8
3 Melbourne Boomers 12 9 2 wins, 1 loss
4 Sydney Flames 12 9 1 win, 2 losses
5 Perth Lynx 11 10 2 wins, 1 loss
6 Bendigo Spirit 11 10 1 win, 2 losses
Melbourne win their tie-breaker against Sydney 2-1.
Perth win their tie-breaker against Bendigo 2-1.
Semi finals:
Southside Flyers (1st) vs Sydney Flames (4th)
Townsville Fire (2nd) vs Melbourne Boomers (3rd)
If Southside lose to Adelaide Southside would have 13 wins and eight losses, the same record as Townsville Fire. Southside would finish on top due to winning the series against Townsville 2-1.
Outcome D: Bendigo & Melbourne tied on 12 wins for 3rd to 4th
Outcome D1
Round 15 results
UC Capitals lose to Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit defeat Perth Lynx
Southside defeat Adelaide
Townsville Fire defeat Sydney Flames
Ladder
Team Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Southside Flyers 14 7 2 wins, 1 loss
2 Townsville Fire 14 7 1 win, 2 losses
3 Bendigo Spirit 12 9 2 wins, 1 loss
4 Melbourne Boomers 12 9 1 win, 2 losses
5 Sydney Flames 11 10
6 Perth Lynx 10 11
Southside win their tie-breaker against Townsville 2-1.
Bendigo win their tie-breaker against Melbourne 2-1.
Semi finals:
Southside Flyers (1st) vs Melbourne Boomers (4th)
Townsville Fire (2nd) vs Bendigo Spirit (3rd)
Outcome D2
Round 15 results
UC Capitals lose to Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit defeat Perth Lynx
Southside lose to Adelaide
Townsville Fire defeat Sydney Flames
Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Townsville Fire 14 7
2 Southside Flyers 13 8
3 Bendigo Spirit 12 9 2 wins, 1 loss
4 Melbourne Boomers 12 9 1 win, 2 losses
5 Sydney Flames 11 10
6 Perth Lynx 10 11
Semi finals:
Townsville Fire (1st) vs Melbourne Boomers (4th)
Southside Flyers (2nd) vs Bendigo Spirit (3rd)
Outcome E: Melbourne & Sydney tied on 11 wins for 4th to 5th
Outcome E1
Round 15 results
UC Capitals defeat Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit defeat Perth Lynx
Southside defeat Adelaide
Townsville Fire defeat Sydney Flames
Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Southside Flyers 14 7 2 wins, 1 loss
2 Townsville Fire 14 7 1 win, 2 losses
3 Bendigo Spirit 12 9
4 Melbourne Boomers 11 10 2 wins, 1 loss
5 Sydney Flames 11 10 1 win, 2 losses
6 Perth Lynx 10 11
Southside win their tie-breaker against Townsville 2-1.
Melbourne win their tie-breaker against Sydney 2-1.
Semi finals:
Southside Flyers (1st) vs Melbourne Boomers (4th)
Townsville Fire (2nd) vs Bendigo Spirit (3rd)
Outcome E2
Round 15 results
UC Capitals defeat Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit defeat Perth Lynx
Southside lose to Adelaide
Townsville Fire defeat Sydney Flames
Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Townsville Fire 14 7
2 Southside Flyers 13 8
3 Bendigo Spirit 12 9
4 Melbourne Boomers 11 10 2 wins, 1 loss
5 Sydney Flames 11 10 1 win, 2 losses
6 Perth Lynx 10 11
Semi finals:
Townsville Fire (1st) vs Melbourne Boomers (4th)
Southside Flyers (2nd) vs Bendigo Spirit (3rd)
Outcome F: Sydney, Bendigo & Perth all tied on 11 wins for 4th to 6th
Outcome F1
UC Capitals lose to Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit lose to Perth Lynx
Southside defeat Adelaide
Townsville Fire defeat Sydney Flames
Ladder
Team Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Southside Flyers 14 7 2 wins, 1 loss
2 Townsville Fire 14 7 1 win, 2 losses
3 Melbourne Boomers 12 9
4 Perth Lynx 11 10 4 wins, 2 loses
5 Sydney Flames 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses
6 Bendigo Spirit 11 10 2 wins, 2 losses
Southside win their tie-breaker against Townsville 2-1.
In a three-way tiebreaker Perth are ranked first, Sydney second and Bendigo third.
Semi finals:
Southside Flyers (1st) vs Perth Lynx (4th)
Townsville Fire (2nd) vs Melbourne Boomers (3rd)
Outcome F2
UC Capitals lose to Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit lose to Perth Lynx
Southside lose to Adelaide
Townsville Fire defeat Sydney Flames
Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Townsville Fire 14 7
2 Southside Flyers 13 8
3 Melbourne Boomers 12 9
4 Perth Lynx 11 10 4 wins, 2 loses
5 Sydney Flames 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses
6 Bendigo Spirit 11 10 2 wins, 2 losses
Semi finals:
Townsville Fire (1st) vs Perth Lynx (4th)
Southside Flyers (2nd) vs Melbourne Boomers (3rd)
Outcome G: Bendigo, Melbourne & Perth all tied on 11 wins for 4th to 6th
Outcome G1
UC Capitals defeat Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit lose to Perth Lynx by four points or less
Southside defeat Adelaide
Townsville Fire lose to Sydney Flames
If this combination of results occur Bendigo, Melbourne & Perth would all be on tied on 11 wins for 4th to 6th. In thehead to head games between these three clubs they would all still be tied with three wins and three losses. The points difference standings before including Bendigo’s Round 15 loss to Perth would be:
Bendigo Spirit 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD +22*
Melbourne Boomers 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD +17
Perth Lynx 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD -39*
*Without including the margin of Perth’s Round 15 victory against Bendigo.
If Bendigo lost to Perth by four points the standings would be:
Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Southside Flyers 14 7
2 Townsville Fire 13 8
3 Sydney Flames 12 9
4 Bendigo Spirit 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD +18*
5 Melbourne Boomers 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD +17
6 Perth Lynx 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD -35*
If Bendigo lose by 1 to 4 points to Perth they will remain above Melbourne on points difference and will finish fourth.
If Bendigo lose to Perth by five points Bendigo and Melbourne would have a points difference of 17. The next step is the “Higher number of game points scored in all games in the group.”8 Melbourne have scored 470 points in their six games in the group. Bendigo have scored 406 points in their first five group games. If Bendigo score 65 points or more in their Round 15 home game against Perth they will overtake Melbourne’s points tally which would result in Bendigo finishing fourth. If Bendigo score less than 64 points against Perth in Round 15 Melbourne will have a higher points tally and will finish fourth. If Bendigo were to score 64 points I think it would go back to the head to head series between Bendigo and Melbourne. Bendigo won the series 2-1 and would finish fourth.
Semi finals:
Southside Flyers (1st) vs Bendigo Spirit (4th)
Townsville Fire (2nd) vs Sydney Flames (3rd)
If Southside lose to Adelaide Southside would have 13 wins and eight losses, the same record as Townsville Fire. Southside would finish on top due to winning the series against Townsville 2-1.
Outcome G2
UC Capitals defeat Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit lose to Perth Lynx by six points or more
Southside defeat Adelaide
Townsville Fire lose to Sydney Flames
If Bendigo lost to Perth by six points the ladder would be:
Ladder
Team Wins Losses Head to head:
1 Southside Flyers 14 7
2 Townsville Fire 13 8
3 Sydney Flames 12 9
4 Melbourne Boomers 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD +17
5 Bendigo Spirit 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD +16*
6 Perth Lynx 11 10 3 wins, 3 losses, PD -33*
If Bendigo lost by more than six points to Perth their points difference would drop below Melbourne resulting in Melbourne finishing fourth and Bendigo fifth.
Semi finals:
Southside Flyers (1st) vs Melbourne Boomers (4th)
Townsville Fire (2nd) vs Sydney Flames (3rd)
If Southside lose to Adelaide Southside would have 13 wins and eight losses, the same record as Townsville Fire. Southside would finish on top due to winning the series against Townsville 2-1.
Outcome H: Melbourne, Sydney, Bendigo & Perth all tied on 11 wins for 3rd to 6th
Outcome H1
Round 15 results
UC Capitals defeat Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit lose to Perth Lynx
Southside defeat Adelaide
Townsville Fire defeat Sydney Flames
Ladder
Team Wins Losses Head to head 1 Head to head 2
1 Southside Flyers 14 7 2 wins, 1 loss
2 Townsville Fire 14 7 1 wins, 2 losses
3 Melbourne Boomers 11 10 5 wins, 4 losses 2 wins, 1 loss
4 Perth Lynx 11 10 5 wins, 4 losses 1 wins, 2 losses
5 Sydney Flames 11 10 4 wins, 5 losses 2 wins, 1 loss
6 Bendigo Spirit 11 10 4 wins, 5 losses 1 wins, 2 losses
Southside win their tie-breaker against Townsville 2-1.
A four-way tie-breaker is required after Melbourne, Perth, Sydney and Bendigo all finish with 11 wins and 10 losses. Melbourne and Perth each had five wins and four losses in the head to head games between this quartet of teams and will make the finals. With four wins and five losses each Sydney and Bendigo miss out on the playoffs. I think the two-way tie persists rule would then be utilised for the Melbourne/Perth tie and Sydney/Bendigo tie. Melbourne won their series 2-1 against Perth and Sydney defeated Bendigo 2-1.
Semi finals:
Southside Flyers (1st) vs Perth Lynx (4th)
Townsville Fire (2nd) vs Melbourne Boomers (3rd)
Outcome H2
Round 15 results
UC Capitals defeat Melbourne Boomers
Bendigo Spirit lose to Perth Lynx
Southside lose to Adelaide
Townsville Fire defeat Sydney Flames
Wins Losses Head to head 1 Head to head 2
1 Townsville Fire 14 7
2 Southside Flyers 13 8
3 Melbourne Boomers 11 10 5 wins, 4 losses 2 wins, 1 loss
4 Perth Lynx 11 10 5 wins, 4 losses 1 wins, 2 losses
5 Sydney Flames 11 10 4 wins, 5 losses 2 wins, 1 loss
6 Bendigo Spirit 11 10 4 wins, 5 losses 1 wins, 2 losses
A four-way tie-breaker is required after Melbourne, Perth, Sydney and Bendigo all finish with 11 wins and 10 losses. Melbourne and Perth each had five wins and four losses in the head to head games between this quartet of teams and will make the finals. With four wins and five losses each Sydney and Bendigo miss out on the playoffs. I think the two-way tie persists rule would then be utilised for the Melbourne/Perth tie and Sydney/Bendigo tie. Melbourne won their series 2-1 against Perth and Sydney defeated Bendigo 2-1.
Semi finals:
Townsville Fire (1st) vs Perth Lynx (4th)
Southside Flyers (2nd) vs Melbourne Boomers (3rd)
Article and photographs by Dean Andrews
Twitter – @DeanAndrews7777
References
1Women’s National Basketball League, Cygnett WNBL 2023/2024 Media Guide, page 21
2 https://wnbl.basketball/blog/news/the-race-to-wnbl-finals/
3 https://wnbl.basketball/townsville/news/quality-clash-between-top-two-teams/
4 https://wnbl.basketball/sydneyflames/news/nicholsons-flames-face-fire-in-do-or-die-fixture/
5 https://wnbl.basketball/perth/news/petrik-excited-how-new-look-lynx-are-shaping-up/
6 https://wnbl.basketball/perth/news/mcdonalds-spectacular-return-boosts-lynx-hopes/
7 https://wnbl.basketball/blog/news/the-race-to-wnbl-finals/
8 Women’s National Basketball League, Cygnett WNBL 2023/2024 Media Guide, page 21
Milestones and misses 